TikTok Deal in the Works: China Signals Openness Amid Rising Geopolitical Stakes:

In a surprising shift, China is now showing willingness to discuss the sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations, a major reversal from its long-standing opposition to U.S. pressure on the popular video-sharing app. For years, Beijing had slammed Washington’s push to force a sale, once denouncing it as “robbers’ logic.” But current developments suggest TikTok has now become a strategic bargaining chip in broader U.S.-China relations. At the heart of the negotiations is TikTok’s highly prized recommendation algorithm — the secret sauce behind its viral success. With over 170 million users in the U.S., the platform’s influence is undeniable. However, under Chinese export laws introduced in 2020, such advanced technologies cannot be transferred abroad without government approval. Beijing has previously called this a "red line," raising questions about how much control China is truly willing to cede. Yet recent signals from both sides suggest a deal may be closer than ever. According to U.S. officials, the Biden administration is confident that China has agreed to a framework that would allow TikTok’s algorithm to be licensed to a U.S.-based joint venture. Oracle, the Texas-based tech giant, would take the lead in overseeing and retraining the algorithm with U.S. data. Oracle’s growing involvement comes amid Republican accusations that TikTok has promoted pro-Palestinian content since the start of the 2023 Gaza war, in which over 60,000 Palestinians have reportedly been killed by Israeli strikes. Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, a strong supporter of Israel, has committed cloud infrastructure to the Israeli government. The proposed new entity would be controlled by a seven-member board, six of whom would be American, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The Biden administration insists this would ensure that TikTok’s U.S. operations — and its powerful algorithm — are firmly under American control. However, experts caution that China’s agreement may come with hidden strings attached. “If China is now open to a deal, it’s likely because they believe they can get significant concessions from the U.S., whether on trade, tech restrictions, or Taiwan,” said Dexter Roberts, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Others suggest the timing is political. Former President Donald Trump is reportedly eager to finalize a TikTok agreement ahead of a potential face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping — their first since Trump returned to the White House. Still, China remains cautious in its official statements. After a recent phone call between Xi and Trump, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed only that a “basic framework consensus” had been reached. Analysts believe this vague wording leaves room for further negotiation, particularly over the algorithm — the core of ByteDance’s entire ecosystem. “There’s a good chance China will never fully hand over the algorithm,” said Chunmeizi Su, a media researcher at the University of Sydney. “At best, the U.S. might get a stripped-down version. ByteDance may even prefer to shut down TikTok’s U.S. arm than expose its core tech.” Despite the uncertainties, any progress on TikTok could mark a thaw in U.S.-China tensions. While direct links between the deal and broader geopolitical issues may not be made public, experts believe both sides may use this moment to quietly ease tariffs or tech restrictions — all under the cover of “good-faith” negotiations.

NEWS