Pakistan–Afghanistan Peace Talks in Istanbul Collapse Amid Rising Border Tensions:

After three tense days of negotiations in Istanbul, peace talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan have broken down, raising fears of renewed violence along their volatile border. The dialogue, mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, was meant to build on a temporary ceasefire reached in Doha on October 19, but insiders say the process has now “hit a wall.” Officials from both sides accuse each other of stalling and failing to present clear positions. Pakistani negotiators claim the Afghan delegation shifted its stance on Islamabad’s core demand — a crackdown on the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group blamed for hundreds of deadly attacks inside Pakistan. “The Afghan team kept changing its position and sought instructions from Kabul repeatedly,” said a Pakistani security official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This made serious progress impossible.” Afghan officials, however, rejected the accusation, saying that Pakistan’s delegation “lacked coordination” and “walked out of discussions several times.” A Fragile Ceasefire and Deep Distrust The Istanbul talks followed a week of fierce cross-border clashes earlier in October that killed dozens of soldiers and civilians on both sides. While the Doha ceasefire offered brief relief, the latest diplomatic push failed to transform it into a lasting peace framework. Analysts say the deadlock reflects the deep mistrust between the two neighbours. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of harbouring TTP fighters and other anti-Pakistan groups, including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and ISIL’s Khorasan branch (ISKP). Kabul denies the allegations, insisting that Pakistan’s security problems are “domestic issues.” “The Afghan Taliban’s ties with the TTP are ideological, not just strategic,” explained Islamabad-based security analyst Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud. “It’s very difficult for them to abandon a group that shares their worldview.” Mutual Blame and Mounting Pressure Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has already warned that Islamabad “will not tolerate cross-border terrorism indefinitely,” hinting at possible military action if talks fail. Afghan Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob, who signed the earlier ceasefire deal in Doha, responded by saying that labels like “terrorism” are often used for political purposes. The two nations have fought off and on for decades, but relations deteriorated sharply after the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. While Islamabad initially welcomed the Taliban’s takeover, hopes for cooperation quickly soured as TTP attacks surged inside Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the TTP carried out more than 600 attacks in 2024 alone — and the trend is accelerating in 2025. The violence has left over 2,500 Pakistanis dead, making last year one of the bloodiest in a decade. Regional Mediation and Global Reactions The stalemate has drawn international concern. Qatar and Türkiye continue to mediate, while China, Iran, and Russia have urged Kabul to prevent armed groups from operating on Afghan soil. Even U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, said he could “solve the Afghanistan–Pakistan crisis very quickly,” hinting at a possible American role in future mediation. Analyst Baqir Sajjad Syed, a former Wilson Center fellow, believes the prospects for peace remain bleak. “The two countries have conflicting priorities and a long history of distrust. Unless there’s a major shift — possibly involving economic incentives or international guarantees — we may see renewed hostilities soon.” A Dangerous Path Forward Observers warn that another round of border fighting could strengthen the TTP and inflame anti-Pakistan sentiment within Afghanistan. Journalist Sami Yousafzai cautioned that if the Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhunzada, declares jihad against Pakistan, “many young Afghans could take up arms, turning a border dispute into a regional crisis.” For now, mediators are urging calm and exploring a new venue for talks. But with both sides hardening their positions and border clashes continuing, the fragile peace that began in Doha looks increasingly at risk.

NEWS