Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Clashes Signal New Phase in Tense Bilateral Ties:

Islamabad, Pakistan – Recent deadly clashes along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have pushed already fragile relations between Islamabad and the Afghan Taliban to a dangerous new low, raising fears of prolonged instability in the region. In what is being seen as a turning point, more than 200 Taliban fighters and at least 58 Pakistani soldiers were reportedly killed in fierce cross-border fighting over the past weekend. The violence came despite months of diplomatic engagement, including meetings between Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Taliban counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi, with support from China. The core trigger remains Pakistan’s growing frustration over the presence of armed groups, especially the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad accuses the Taliban of harboring. The TTP has intensified attacks inside Pakistan, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project shows the TTP carried out more than 600 attacks in the past year alone. Pakistan’s Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) estimates over 2,400 security personnel have been killed in 2025 so far — making it the deadliest year in a decade. On October 8, another deadly TTP-linked assault killed several Pakistani soldiers. In response, Pakistan allegedly launched strikes in Kabul and eastern Afghanistan, although it has not officially claimed responsibility. The Taliban, however, blamed Pakistan and warned of retaliation. What’s different this time, analysts say, is that Pakistan seems to be shifting to a "new normal" — where it signals that future attacks from Afghan soil may trigger direct responses across the border. This mirrors India’s posture earlier this year, when New Delhi blamed Islamabad for an attack in Kashmir and responded with cross-border military action. Despite Pakistan’s military superiority, experts warn that escalating conflict with Afghanistan — while tensions with India remain high — is risky. “No country can afford a two-front war,” said former ambassador Seema Ilahi Baloch. The Taliban’s perceived engagement with India adds another layer of complexity. Amir Khan Muttaqi recently visited New Delhi — the first high-level Taliban visit to India in four years — sparking concern in Islamabad over growing Kabul-New Delhi ties. Pakistan has also started questioning the Taliban’s legitimacy, marking a significant shift in tone. For the first time, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry called for a more “inclusive” Afghan government and hinted support for anti-Taliban elements if Kabul continues to ignore Islamabad’s concerns. However, experts remain cautious about what Pakistan’s recent actions can actually achieve. “What really is the end game here?” asked Abdul Basit, a research fellow in Singapore. “Will this pressure push the Taliban to act against the TTP, or push them closer together?” Regional stakeholders including China, Russia, and Iran have urged the Taliban to rein in the TTP. With pressure mounting, many expect backchannel diplomacy to resume — possibly in a neutral country. But a long-term solution remains distant. For now, Pakistan’s policy appears to hinge on making the cost of inaction too high for Kabul — while hoping to avoid an all-out war.

NEWS