Muqtada al-Sadr Eyes a Comeback as Iraq’s Political Crisis Deepens:

Muqtada al-Sadr, the influential Iraqi Shia cleric and leader of the Sadrist movement, announced last month that his followers would boycott the upcoming November 2025 elections. But observers say the move may be part of a long-term political strategy rather than a complete exit from Iraq’s political scene. In a statement, al-Sadr declared his desire to “change the faces and save Iraq,” reinforcing his demand for a full system overhaul. He also sharply criticized his political rivals, the Iran-aligned Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), accusing them of orchestrating attacks on his allies. But behind the scenes, reports suggest that al-Sadr’s movement had already held quiet negotiations with the Iraqi government in hopes of rejoining the elections. Talks reportedly fell through when the SCF refused to grant a registration deadline extension that would allow the Sadrists to participate. Eventually, al-Sadr himself ended the negotiations in July by posting a handwritten note tagged with #Boycotters, signaling a return to electoral withdrawal—for now. Sadrist Exit or Strategic Pause? Despite public claims of political withdrawal, sources close to al-Sadr indicate that his boycott is not permanent. Rather, it’s a strategic delay aimed at preserving his movement’s independence while allowing the SCF-led government to fail under mounting pressure. Al-Sadr appears to be biding his time, ready to step in with his newly rebranded Patriotic Shia Current if Iraq’s political and economic crisis worsens. His supporters argue that he’s preparing to offer a more organized and independent alternative to Iraq’s sectarian power-sharing system, known as Muhasasa. Muhasasa divides government roles among ethnic and religious groups but is widely blamed for corruption and inefficiency. Al-Sadr’s vision, in contrast, favors a “national majority” government that excludes rival blocs from executive power—a vision he attempted to realize in 2021. How the “National Majority” Plan Failed In 2021, the Sadrists won 73 seats in parliament and formed an alliance with Kurdish and Sunni parties under the coalition name Inqath Watan (Saving a Homeland). Their goal was to form a slim majority government and send the SCF into opposition. However, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court blocked the plan by requiring a two-thirds quorum to elect a president—effectively allowing the SCF to stall the process with a minority bloc. Facing deadlock, al-Sadr withdrew his MPs from parliament in June 2022, a move that handed power back to his rivals. Following his exit, the SCF consolidated power, installing Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as prime minister and systematically removing Sadrist officials from key state positions. The government now faces a fragile internal situation, burdened by rising public spending and U.S. sanctions on Iraqi banks linked to Iran. Sadr’s Ground Game and Regional Positioning While out of parliament, al-Sadr hasn’t disappeared from Iraqi public life. In 2024, he rebranded his movement as the Patriotic Shia Current, and in 2025, made symbolic gestures during Ashura by setting up tents in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square and Nasiriyah’s Haboubi Square—strongholds of the 2019 Tishreen protests. These moves signaled his outreach to Iraq’s youth and protest movement while distancing himself from the political establishment. Regionally, he has also positioned himself as a more neutral actor, avoiding inflammatory rhetoric around the war in Gaza and aligning more with Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. What Comes Next? As Iraq faces external threats and internal instability, many wonder if the current government can hold. If it collapses, al-Sadr may be uniquely placed to step in—not just as a religious figure, but as a political leader with street credibility and a well-organized movement. For now, the Sadrist boycott may be less about stepping away—and more about waiting for the right moment to take control on their own terms.

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