Curious about how the Indian stock market might respond on Monday? Let’s break down the potential impact of the Trump-Putin meeting and the GST reforms. Here’s a detailed explanation for you!

The highly anticipated three-on-three meeting between Trump and Putin wrapped up in Alaska on Friday, leaving many hopeful that the next round of discussions will take place in Moscow soon. Interestingly, President Donald Trump didn’t walk out as he had threatened before the meeting, which hints at some progress in the ongoing efforts for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement of GST reforms during his Independence Day speech from the Red Fort could serve as a positive catalyst for the Indian stock market. Stock market analysts believe that a breakthrough has occurred in US-Russia relations, as both leaders, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, have committed to further meetings. They noted that Trump had promised to leave if he found Putin's approach unsatisfactory. However, following their discussions, both leaders expressed optimism, indicating 'progress but no deal' has been made. As the markets open on Monday, experts anticipate that the outcomes of the Trump-Putin meeting will be well-received globally, including on Dalal Street. They also expect a favorable reaction to Modi's GST reforms announced on August 15. While a positive start is predicted for Dalal Street, there are concerns that the Nifty 50 may struggle to surpass the 24,800 mark. Analyzing the results of the Trump-Putin meeting, Avinash Gorakshkar, a fundamental analyst registered with SEBI, shared his thoughts: "The much-anticipated Trump-Putin meeting wrapped up with some progress, even though no concrete deal was reached. Both leaders have agreed to reconvene for another round of discussions, which is a promising sign for efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Before the meeting, the US President had made it clear that he would walk out if he found Putin's approach unsatisfactory. However, following their discussions, both leaders spoke positively, which could serve as a boost for global markets, including the Indian stock market." Still, Gorakshkar pointed out that there was no advancement regarding Trump's tariffs, and concerns about US tariffs linger. Turning to the GST reforms that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced during his Independence Day address, Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, commented, "The Indian stock market has already factored in Trump's tariffs, and any further negativity could have emerged if the Trump-Putin meeting had not gone well. However, given this 'progress without a deal' scenario, the market is likely to remain stable despite the lack of a significant breakthrough on tariffs. A major domestic catalyst is the GST reforms announced by Modi, which are expected to help bulls outpace bears on Monday. We might see a positive start when trading resumes on Dalal Street after a three-day break." Encouraging investors to focus on sectors driven by domestic consumption, Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, advised, "Sectors like banking and finance, telecom, aviation, capital goods, hotels, FMCG, and cement are unlikely to be affected by Trump's tariffs. However, it's crucial for investors to select stocks that are fairly valued within these areas." When discussing why Trump's tariffs might not play a major role in the short term, Gaurav Goel, the Founder & Director at Fynocrat Technologies, pointed out, "One key reason for the market's stability is the robust and consistent backing from domestic institutional investors. They've been pouring significant amounts of money into Indian equities, which acts as a buffer against external shocks. In May, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth ₹67,642 crore, followed by ₹72,673 crore in June, ₹60,939 crore in July, and ₹51,899 crore in August. This steady influx of investment is helping the market maintain its stability." He continued, "Another important aspect is the resilience and diversity of the Indian economy. Our growth isn't dependent on just one export market. With domestic consumption, services, manufacturing, and technology all contributing, we have a solid foundation that isn't easily disrupted by a single policy change overseas. Even if all the proposed tariffs are implemented, experts predict the effect on India’s GDP will be less than 0.2 percent. This really puts into perspective how minor this challenge is compared to our overall economic landscape." However, market analysts cautioned that the gains seen on Monday might be limited, and the Nifty 50 index could struggle to surpass the 24,800 mark. Avinash Gorakshkar noted, "The Indian stock market may see a positive start on Monday, but any increase will likely be constrained, and the Nifty 50 index may find it challenging to break through the 24,800 barrier."

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